What do you get when you combine the talents of a journalist, the knowledge base of a seasoned financial adviser, and the flexible mindset required to keep up to date with the latest cryptocurrency trends? Anyone who regularly follows crypto-related news might already be familiar with Frederick Munawa.
This Canadian reporter is well-versed in the legal intricacies of finance, and such a unique set of skills has also enabled him to become one of the most sought-after “gurus” when it comes to cryptocurrencies.
While he provides regular updates across social media portals such as X (Twitter), we decided to speak with Mr. Munawa directly to better appreciate his theory on Bitcoin cycles. Let’s take a look at why these observations could represent a game-changer for many investors.
Bitcoin: The Foundation of the Cryptocurrency Ecosystem
To our surprise, Mr. Munawa has been keeping tabs on Bitcoin since as far back as 2010. This makes him one of the few traders who was able to see its inherent value at an early stage. Such a longitudinal perspective also enables him to see the “big picture” in terms of decades, as opposed to years. He summarises his experience as follows
“I was lucky enough to see that Bitcoin possessed inherent value far beyond the initial white paper published by Satoshi Nakamoto. I felt that the concept of peer-to-peer distributed payments represented the wave of the future; even if others had their doubts. It’s clear to see what has happened to Bitcoin since its introduction.”
Although others have diversified into additional tokens, Mr. Munawa remains a stalwart supporter of Bitcoin. This is also why he was able to spot an interesting long-term trend that others rarely highlight.
Stepping Back from Short-Term Price Movements
One of the reasons why Mr. Munawa has gained a significant following across Bitcoin-related news outlets involves his innate ability to look at the big picture, as opposed to becoming mired down in medium-term volatility. He has identified a specific pattern that seems to repeat over (roughly) every four years. Here is a quick breakdown:
- 1. A one-off bull run that pushes the price of Bitcoin to a new plateau.
- 2. A market crash, signalling a significant investor sell-off.
- 3. A period of consolidation, followed by a sharp recovery.
He goes on to explain this theory in more detail:
“I tend to rely on two key technical indicators when analysing the long-term movements of Bitcoin. Fibonacci retracements, and the moving average convergence-divergence (MACD) provide a clear picture of long-term trends. It’s also easy to see that the cycles outlined above can be predicted with a relative degree of certainty.”
Why Have so Few Analysts Spotted this Trend?
We posed this question to Mr. Munawa, and he simply replied that many have. The issue is that they were more interested in medium-term profits as opposed to long-term holds. In other words, cycles that may require years to complete were less attractive than the liquid positions associated with trading over a period of months.
Another possible factor is that while the pattern itself can be identified by viewing long-term technical charts, the time period could vary. Others feel that as Bitcoin is still a relatively young asset, more time will be needed before instances of this pattern will be deemed verifiable. They simply require additional confirmation.
What Does the Near Future Have in Store?
If we assume that this same pattern is set to repeat, how might Bitcoin fare in the coming years? Once again, we turn to Mr. Munawa for insight.
“Let’s consider the three stages, and the corresponding years. 2013 witnessed a massive surge in Bitcoin prices. Bitcoin plummeted in 2017 before superseding its previous highs. In 2021, this token crashed, only to again break through previous long-term resistance levels.”
Mr. Munawa has already stated on several of his news posts that this four-year cycle might soon be set to take the markets by storm. If we assume that 2021 represented the most recent high, it is not unreasonable to extrapolate that 2025 might soon witness yet another peak in the price of BTC.
Furthermore, macroeconomics may also come into play. One of the reasons why Bitcoin has been enjoying a bearish medium-term cycle involves government-related initiatives, such as the United States approving Bitcoin ETFs. While technical indicators are obviously important, the fact that cryptocurrency tokens are continuing to enjoy mainstream adoption could signal a bullish move into entirely new territory.
Mr. Munawa sums up this position as follows:
“Although I am not claiming to possess any type of crystal ball, I am relatively confident that we will soon be in the midst of another positive run. If Bitcoin tests and breaks through existing support levels, a brave new world could await.”
We will be keeping a close eye on the cryptocurrency markets, and there is no doubt that Frederick Munawa intends to do the same.
